Launching Hollywood Career Harder Than Joining NFL?
Nobody looks at their beer-league softball swing and thinks they're one try-out away from the majors. Nobody throws a football in the park and thinks the NFL is calling next week. When it comes to a pro sports profession, we accept the pyramid is steep, odds are merciless, and only a tiny fraction of a fraction make it.
A screen scribbling career is a whole different story.
Buy Final Draft, crank out a pilot, take a class, and suddenly it feels like you're in the mix. YouTube videos, contests, fellowships, coverage fees, MFA programs, seminars, online gurus. A whole economy is built on the assumption that you could be next.
But Does It Math?
- After the 2023 strikes, the Writers Guild of America reported 1,819 staffed TV writing jobs in the 2023-24 season. That's down more than 25% compared to the previous year. Median earnings also fell, showing how much the downturn gutted the business.
- Film scribing jobs shrank too, with double-digit percentage declines across multiple categories.
- The NFL employs roughly 1,700 active players each season (32 teams x 53-man rosters). That's barely more writers than football players. The NFL number climbs higher with practice squads and injured reserve, so the scribe tribe is even smaller by comparison.
- According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are over 30,000 professional athletes and competitors in the U.S., a category that spans the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, tennis, golf, and more.
Perception Gap
Pro Sports: Everyone knows the odds are terrible. That's why "going pro" is shorthand for an impossible dream. The system is transparent; you either make the team or you don't.
Hollywood Screenwriting: The odds are just as brutal, but the path is murky. There's no official draft, no stopwatch, no combine telling you you're too slow. The barrier is invisible, which makes it easy to believe you're closer than you really are.
That's why so many people hang onto the dream of QWERTY cash and glory, even when the stats say otherwise.
Every so often, one person sneaks through the studio gates, cashes a check, and their story becomes the proof of life that keeps everyone else chasing the dream.
Reality Check
If you've ever been staffed on a show, sold a script, or cashed a check for your scribbles, you've beaten odds steeper than pro sports. You joined a club smaller than the NFL. You may not feel like a superstar, but the math says you absolutely beat the odds.
This isn't a hobby with a paycheck waiting at the end. It's not a career ladder, it's a slot machine. And the house always wins.
What Math Can't Measure
The scribblers grinding in Starbucks, swapping drafts online, carving out scenes late at night, aren’t just chasing paychecks. They're building skills, learning discipline, forging friendships, and creating stories that inform every part of their lives.
The act of scribbling stories feeds something essential in the human spirit. So chase your dream if it calls. But know the game you're playing. And the odds of actually getting on the scoreboard.
